My Oscar Nomination Predictions
For the past decade or so, this categories nominees could range anywhere between 5 to 10. Next year, the Academy is setting it at a firm ten. That being said, my predictions are in order of probability, so if there are only 8 or 9 nominees, then my 9th or 10th do not count. You get the idea. To be fair though, there are at least 6 or 7 films that are shoo-ins, with another one, maybe even two pretty damn close to shoo-in numbers. I'm thinking a total of nine nominees. Here are my choices.
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Promising Young Woman
6. The Father
7. One Night in Miami
8. Sound of Metal
9. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
10. Judas and the Black Messiah
Dark Horse Possibility: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
My Impossible Hopeful: I'm Thinking of Ending Things
These five nominees are pretty much a foregone conclusion. I would be very surprised if another director snuck in, even though Regina King's directorial debut on One Night in Miami could be that surprise. And remember, there have been surprises galore in the history of this category, and with this seeming like such a predictable year, ya never know.
1. Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
2. Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman
4. David Fincher for Mank
5. Lee Isaac Chung for Minari
Dark Horse Possibility: The aforementioned Ms. King or Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round
My Impossible Hopeful: Miranda July for Kajillionaire
This is probably, no not probably, this is definitely the category with the least chance of a surprise nomination. Yes, I would love to see newcomer Sidney Flanigan get in for her brilliant, harrowing turn in Never Rarely Sometimes Always, but it just ain't happening. Even Rosamund Pike's surprise Golden Globe probably won't be enough to hear her name called tomorrow morning. So here are the nominees.
1. Frances McDormand in Nomadland
2. Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman
3. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4. Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman
5. Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Dark Horse Possibility: Rosamund Pike in I Care A Lot
My Impossible Hopeful: Sidney Flanigan in Never Rarely Sometimes Always
It is another foregone conclusion that the late great Chadwick Boseman is going to win this come April. As for the four gentlemen who will inevitably lose to him on Oscar night, it is a battle between five - with one being left out in the cold come tomorrow morning. Here are my predictions.
1. Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins in The Father
3. Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman in Mank
5. Steven Yeun in Minari
Dark Horse Possibility: Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods
My Impossible Hopeful: Mads Mikkelson in Another Round
Best Supporting Actress
In keeping with the utter predictability of this year's Oscar race, this category has four shoo-ins, but that fifth spot could go to about a half a dozen women. I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb and choose not the most likely fifth nominee, but the one I think will sneak in. There is always one major category, even in such a predictable year, that has a surprise, and even though she isn't a super surprise (she did win the Golden Globe after all), she is not listed in many Oscar pundits predictions. Plus I enjoy tossing a random monkey wrench into the works, which is what I did her, leaving the somewhat more likely fifth nominees for the dark horse spot.
1. Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
2. Olivia Colman in The Father
3. Amanda Seyfried in Mank
4. Youn Yuh-jung in Minari
5. Jodie Foster in The Mauritanian
Dark Horse Possibility: Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy or Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of A Woman
My Impossible Hopeful: Toni Colette in I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Best Supporting Actor
Again, a category that appears to have all five nominees wrapped up. Perhaps not as solidly as Best Actress, but still pretty solidly. The only question is if the unknown Paul Raci can actually get in there tomorrow. Another question, though less questionable, is if the late great Chadwick Boseman, being such a runaway frontrunner to win the Best Actor Oscar, will still garner a double nomination this year. They could go with the whole spreading the wealth thing, but I'm betting he will get the double nod, so here are my predictions.
1. Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
3. Leslie Odom Jr in One Night in Miami
4. Chadwick Boseman in Da 5 Bloods
5. Paul Raci in Sound of Metal
Dark Horse Possibility: Bill Murray in On the Rocks
My Impossible Hopeful: Richard Jenkins in Kajillionaire
Best Original & Adapted Screenplay
Another pretty solid bunch of probables in both the screenplay categories, but, especially with the writing categories, ya never know what name will be called on nomination morning. I did toss in another random monkey wrench here though - just for the fun of it
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
Other Possibilities: Sound of Metal, Judas and the Black Messiah, Palm Springs.
2. The Father
3. One Night in Miami
4. The White Tiger
5. First Cow
Other Possibilities: News of the World, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.
As for the other 15 categories (there are 23 total, as opposed to the 24 of previous years, due to the two sound categories being combined back into one) well, I rarely ever delve into them because I am generally a lazy person. Ha! Anyhoo, I'll be back tomorrow afternoon with my thoughts on the nominations and to brag at how well I did with my predictions.
That's it gang. See ya 'round the web.