My Oscar Nomination Predictions

So here we go kids! Another year, another attempt at predicting the Oscars! Of course 2020 was a very different year, but enough about all that. Haven't we discussed that enough. Let's look to the future instead. Granted, the Academy Awards were pushed back until the end of April because of, well you know...2020. So that means the nominations are coming a bit late too. But tomorrow they are a-comin', so today, I give you my final nomination predictions - just like every other year. And speaking of every other year, my predictions usually come in the 83% to 88% range, sometimes I even breach that 90% threshold. This year, who knows. It does seem a bit more predictable than normal this year. Anyhoo, enough babbling. Let's get on with the predictions! Below are my predictions for each of the eight major categories, along with a dark horse / spoiler choice and an impossible hopeful, aka a film or performer I love but knows has no chance in hell. And awaaaay we go!

Best Picture

For the past decade or so, this categories nominees could range anywhere between 5 to 10. Next year, the Academy is setting it at a firm ten. That being said, my predictions are in order of probability, so if there are only 8 or 9 nominees, then my 9th or 10th do not count. You get the idea. To be fair though, there are at least 6 or 7 films that are shoo-ins, with another one, maybe even two pretty damn close to shoo-in numbers. I'm thinking a total of nine nominees. Here are my choices.

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Promising Young Woman
4. Minari
5. Mank
6. The Father
7. One Night in Miami
8. Sound of Metal
9. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
10. Judas and the Black Messiah

Dark Horse Possibility: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

My Impossible Hopeful: I'm Thinking of Ending Things

Best Director

These five nominees are pretty much a foregone conclusion. I would be very surprised if another director snuck in, even though Regina King's directorial debut on One Night in Miami could be that surprise. And remember, there have been surprises galore in the history of this category, and with this seeming like such a predictable year, ya never know.

1. Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
2. Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman
4. David Fincher for Mank
5. Lee Isaac Chung for Minari

Dark Horse Possibility: The aforementioned Ms. King or Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round

My Impossible Hopeful: Miranda July for Kajillionaire

Best Actress

This is probably, no not probably, this is definitely the category with the least chance of a surprise nomination. Yes, I would love to see newcomer Sidney Flanigan get in for her brilliant, harrowing turn in Never Rarely Sometimes Always, but it just ain't happening. Even Rosamund Pike's surprise Golden Globe probably won't be enough to hear her name called tomorrow morning. So here are the nominees.

1. Frances McDormand in Nomadland
2. Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman
3. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4. Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman
5. Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Dark Horse Possibility: Rosamund Pike in I Care A Lot

My Impossible Hopeful: Sidney Flanigan in Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Actor

It is another foregone conclusion that the late great Chadwick Boseman is going to win this come April. As for the four gentlemen who will inevitably lose to him on Oscar night, it is a battle between five - with one being left out in the cold come tomorrow morning. Here are my predictions.

1. Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins in The Father
3. Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman in Mank
5. Steven Yeun in Minari

Dark Horse Possibility: Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods

My Impossible Hopeful: Mads Mikkelson in Another Round

Best Supporting Actress

In keeping with the utter predictability of this year's Oscar race, this category has four shoo-ins, but that fifth spot could go to about a half a dozen women. I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb and choose not the most likely fifth nominee, but the one I think will sneak in. There is always one major category, even in such a predictable year, that has a surprise, and even though she isn't a super surprise (she did win the Golden Globe after all), she is not listed in many Oscar pundits predictions. Plus I enjoy tossing a random monkey wrench into the works, which is what I did her, leaving the somewhat more likely fifth nominees for the dark horse spot.

1. Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
2. Olivia Colman in The Father
3. Amanda Seyfried in Mank
4. Youn Yuh-jung in Minari
5. Jodie Foster in The Mauritanian

Dark Horse Possibility: Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy or Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of A Woman

My Impossible Hopeful: Toni Colette in I'm Thinking of Ending Things

Best Supporting Actor

Again, a category that appears to have all five nominees wrapped up. Perhaps not as solidly as Best Actress, but still pretty solidly. The only question is if the unknown Paul Raci can actually get in there tomorrow. Another question, though less questionable, is if the late great Chadwick Boseman, being such a runaway frontrunner to win the Best Actor Oscar, will still garner a double nomination this year. They could go with the whole spreading the wealth thing, but I'm betting he will get the double nod, so here are my predictions.

1. Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
3. Leslie Odom Jr in One Night in Miami
4. Chadwick Boseman in Da 5 Bloods
5. Paul Raci in Sound of Metal

Dark Horse Possibility: Bill Murray in On the Rocks

My Impossible Hopeful: Richard Jenkins in Kajillionaire

Best Original & Adapted Screenplay

Another pretty solid bunch of probables in both the screenplay categories, but, especially with the writing categories, ya never know what name will be called on nomination morning. I did toss in another random monkey wrench here though - just for the fun of it

Original Screenplay

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Mank
4. Minari
5. Soul

Other Possibilities: Sound of Metal, Judas and the Black Messiah, Palm Springs.

Adapted Screenplay

1. Nomadland
2. The Father
3. One Night in Miami
4. The White Tiger
5. First Cow

Other Possibilities: News of the World, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.

As for the other 15 categories (there are 23 total, as opposed to the 24 of previous years, due to the two sound categories being combined back into one) well, I rarely ever delve into them because I am generally a lazy person. Ha! Anyhoo, I'll be back tomorrow afternoon with my thoughts on the nominations and to brag at how well I did with my predictions.

That's it gang. See ya 'round the web.



Comments

  1. I have not seen any of these because I don’t have the 5,000 streaming services now out there but I hope I can see a few before Oscar time.

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