My Final Oscar Nomination Predictios
Best Picture
So there are pretty much seven locks here, followed by a couple almost locks, followed by about five films vying for that tenth spot. Here are my picks in order of probability, even though the top few can be interchangeable as there is no clear cut frontrunner yet.
1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. West Side Story
4. Licorice Pizza
5. Dune
6. Don't Look Up
7. CODA
8. King Richard
9. Drive My Car
10. Nightmare Alley
Spoilers: Being the Ricardos, Tick, Tick ...Boom!, House of Gucci, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dark Horse Possibilities: The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Parallel Mothers, Spencer
My Impossible Hopeful: Shiva Baby (highly overlooked)
Best Director
Usually the Academy doesn't totally agree with the DGA, often tossing in a surprise nomination to someone the Director's Guild overlooked. So, I'm not going with the straight DGA ticket here, leaving Villaneuve out in place of Hamaguchi. And, for the record, I also think we are going to see our second consecutive woman winning Best Director, even if her film doesn't win.
1. Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
2. Steven Spielberg for West Side Story
3. Kenneth Branagh for Belfast
4. Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car
Spoiler: DGA nominee Denis Villaneuve could still make it a straight DGA ticket
Other Possible Spoilers: Adam McKay (Don't Look Up), Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley), Aaron Sorkin (Being the Ricardos), or Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Wishful Thinking: Paolo Sorrentino for The Hand of God
Best Actress
This is probably the most difficult category to pinpoint this year. The frontrunner seems to change every other week. There seems to be just two real locks and then a dozen women vying for the other three spots - some of those being former frontrunners. Anyway...
1. Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter
2. Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos
3. Lady Gaga in House of Gucci
4. Kristen Stewart in Spencer
5. Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers
Other possibilities: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Rachel Zegler (West Side Story), Jennifer Hudson (Respect)
Wishful Thinking: Alana Haim in Licorice Pizza (though it could really happen)
Best Actor
As opposed to it's female counterpart, Best Actor is one of the easier categories to predict this year, with four solid locks - even though the eventual winner could pretty much be any of them. Here we go.
1. Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog
2. Will Smith in King Richard
3. Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Andrew Garfield in Tick, Tick ...Boom!
5. Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos
Possible Spoilers: Leonardo DiCaprio in Don't Look Up or Peter Dinklage in Cyrano
Dark Horse Contenders for that Final Spot: Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley), Joaquin Phoenix (C'mon C'mon)
Wishful Thinking: Cooper Hoffman in Licorice Pizza
Best Supporting Actress
A solid group of locks. So much so that it is probably the easiest category to predict this year. But even with four locks, that last spot could be tricky.
1. Caitriona Balfe in Belfast
2. Ariana DeBose in West Side Story
3. Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog
4. Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard
5. Ruth Negga in Passing
Possible Spoiler for that Fifth Spot: Cate Blanchett in Nightmare Alley or the sentimental choice, Rita Moreno in West Side Story
Dark Horse Possibles for that Fifth Spot: Judi Dench (Belfast), Ann Dowd (Mass), Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Marlee Matlin (CODA), Rebecca Furguson (Dune)
Wishful Thinking (but still a real possibility): Kathryn Hunter in The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Supporting Actor
Another one of those categories with four locks and the biggest and wildest race for that fifth spot. Some of this wild race even involves costars vying against each other. That last spot I am guessing will be helped out by the sudden outpouring for Being the Ricardos - if it overflows into the Oscars that is. If it doesn't, then there are at least a half a dozen guys ready to grab that spot up - maybe even a Bradley Cooper surprise.
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog
2. Ciaran Hinds in Belfast
3. Troy Kotsur in CODA
4. Jesse Plemons in The Powet of the Dog
5. J.K. Simmons in Being the Ricardos
Possible (and perhaps probable) Spoilers: Jared Leto (House of Gucci), Jamie Dornan (Belfast), Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza), Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar), Jon Bernthal (King Richard), Corey Hawkins (Tragedy of Macbeth), David Alvarez (West Side Story).
The guy that should be there but has been getting wrongfully overshadowed by his co-stars: Mike Faist as Riff in West Side Story - This guy gives the most in depth performance in the movie and is my favourite part of a movie I loved every part of.
Best Original & Adapted Screenplay
Again, some locks with one or two wild cards tossed in for fun.
Original Screenplay
1. Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza
2. Aaron Sorkin for Being the Ricardos
3. Kenneth Branagh for Belfast
4. Adam McKay & David Sirota for Don't Look Up
5. Zach Baylin for King Richard
Possible Spoiler: Pedro Almadovar for Parallel Mothers
Adapted Screenplay
1. Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
2. Sian Heder for CODA
3. Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car
4. Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts, & Dennis Villeneuve for Dune
5. Maggie Gyllenhaal for The Lost Daughter
Other probables: Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan (Nightmare Alley), Joel Coen (Tragedy of Macbeth), Rebecca Hall (Passing), and Tony Kushner for West Side Story. That last one is a very strong probability if WSS hits it big in the voting.
There ya go! As for the other 15 categories (there are 23 total) I rarely ever delve into them because I am generally a lazy person. Ha! Anyhoo, I'll be back after the announcement with my thoughts on the nominations and to brag at how well I did with my predictions.
That's it gang. See ya 'round the web.
Well, I have not seen any which really, really sucks. I want to see most of these even the Ricardo’s. I just can’t get over Kidman as Lucy
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