Sunday, January 12, 2020

My Oscar Nomination Predictions

Hey gang! It's that time of year again. The Oscar Nominations are due to be announced in the wee hours of tomorrow morning. So, here are my predictions for said nominations. Here we go!

BEST PICTURE

1. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
2. Parasite
3. 1917
4. The Irishman
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. Marriage Story
7. Joker
8. Little Women
9. Ford v Ferrari
10. Knives Out

Possible Spoilers: Uncut Gems or The Two Popes

Wishful Thinking: Midsommar or The Lighthouse

So, with the Oscar rules currently allowing anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees, we have been getting 8 or 9 each time around. I think this year we may actually get 10 of 'em. Whatever the case, I have the films listed here in order of likeliness...with the top 7 being virtual locks. Little Women, a favourite for many categories early on, has pretty much been locked out of the awards season so far, but I think it will still make the grade here, as will the surprise hit of the season, Knives Out...if we get ten nominees. Tarantino's Once Upon a Time is still the one to beat for the Oscar, with Parasite and 1917 close on it's heels.

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Bong Joon Ho for Parasite
2. Martin Scorsese for The Irishman
3. Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
4. Sam Mendes for 1917
5. Taika Waititi for Jojo Rabbit

Possible Spoilers: Todd Phillips for Joker or Greta Gerwig for Little Women

Wishful Thinking: Safdie Brothers for Uncut Gems

The top four here are locks...with Bong very possibly taking home the Oscar (6 of the last 7 Best Director winners have been foreign born), which leaves us with that fifth spot. I am going with Waititi mostly due to his DGA nod the other day (almost exact same voting demographic)...but let's not count out Gerwig for Little Women. She deserved a nod for Lady Bird a few years back, but her new film is not near up to that level...still, with the Academy being more diverse now, we could see a woman get nominated here. Making it look like Hollywood is more diverse than it actually. We could also see Todd Phillips sneak in here...or maybe even Gerwig's hubby, Noah Baumbach for Marriage Story...though he has been absent from most of awards season, even though his film keeps getting nominated. More of an actor driven film, than a director driven work?

BEST ACTRESS

1. Renee Zellweger for Judy
2. Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story
3. Charlize Theron for Bombshell
4. Lupita Nyong'o for Us
5. Cynthia Erivo for Harriet

Possible Spoiler: Saoirse Ronan for Little Women or Awkwafina for The Farewell

Wishful Thinking: Florence Pugh for Midsommar (my pick for Best Actress of 2019!)

Basically, this is a seven woman race, with only five spots open. I think the top three are locks, leaving two spots being fought over by four women. Ronan was a frontrunner before Little Women started being ignored in awards season, leaving a once seeming locked spot open for someone else. I like to think that with the much more diverse Academy membership these days, that the two women of color, both giving brilliant performances, will get those two open spots. We could see Awkwafina slip in there too...but it would be at the expense of either Erivo or Nyong'o.

BEST ACTOR

1. Joaquin Phoenix in Joker
2. Adam Driver in Marriage Story
3. Antonio Banderas in Pain & Glory
4. Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
5. Taron Egerton in Rocketman

Possible Spoiler: Robert De Niro in The Irishman or Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems

Wishful Thinking: Eddie Murphy in Dolemite is my Name

This is another of those races that has four locks and one open spot. After his Golden Globe victory, Egerton is on a roll. De Niro had been a frontrunner, but after snubs by both the Globes and SAG, his chances are not looking great. A surprise nod for Sandler, in a career best performance, would be great though. WE could also possibly see Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes too. No matter what though, this is Joaquin's Oscar to win or lose. But if there is any category with an Oscar night surprise (a la Olivia Colman beating Glenn Close last year) it could be Banderas, also with a career best performance (which is a much bolder statement than when one says it about Sandler) swooping in for the win. To be fair, unlike Colman last year, Banderas has won a lot more of the precursor awards than Phoenix has. But that is a tale for February.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laura Dern in Marriage Story
2. Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers
3. Margot Robbie in Bombshell
4. Florence Pugh in Little Women
5. Zhao Shuzhen in The Farewell

Very Possible Spoiler: Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit

Wishful Thinking: I already said Zhao Shuzhen, right?

Top three are virtual locks. After that, anything goes. Pugh could go the way of Ronan, and fall prey to the lackluster support of Little Women. Zhao is kind of a pipe dream nomination. We could easily see Scarlett get a double nod here...especially with the late upswing in support for Jojo Rabbit. We could also see either Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) or Annette Bening (The Report) sneak in as well. This is definitely the most open acting category of the year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
2. Joe Pesci in The Irishman
3. Al Pacino in The Irishman
4. Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Song Kang Ho in Parasite

Possible Spoiler: Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes

Wishful Thinking: Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse

This seems like a five way lock here, though Song is kind of a wild card, but the juggernaut that is Parasite should put him here...and deservedly so. Though I would love to see Dafoe sneak in (instead of that sappy Hanks performance) but that is highly unlikely...which is sad, as The Lighthouse was a fantastic film, and will probably only garnewr one nomination tomorrow morning, for Cinematography.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
2. Marriage Story
3. Parasite
4. The Farewell
5. Knives Out

Possible Spoiler: Booksmart...which I would love to see!!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Irishman
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. Little Women
4. Joker
5. The Two Popes

Possible Spoiler: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

1. Parasite (South Korea)
2. Pain & Glory (Spain)
3. Les Miserables (France)
4. Atlantics (Senegal)
5. Those Who Remained (Hungary)

Possible Spoiler: Honeyland (North Macedonia)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Frozen II
2. Toy Story 4
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4. Missing Link
5. I Lost My Body

Possible Spoiler: Klaus or Abominable

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Apollo 11
2. American Factory
3. Honeyland
4. One Child Nation
5. For Sama

Possible Spoiler: The Cave or The Biggest Little Farm

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. 1917
2. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
3. The Irishman
4. The Lighthouse
5. Joker

Possible Spoiler: Hidden Life or Parasite or Ford v Ferrari

BEST FILM EDITING

1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
3. Parasite
4. Marriage Story
5. Jojo Rabbit

Possible Spoiler: Joker or Ford v Ferrari or 1917

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. 1917
4. Jojo Rabbit
5. Joker

Possible Spoiler: Parasite

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Rocketman
4. Dolemite is My Name
5. Jojo Rabbit

Possible Spoiler: The Irishman or Downton Abby or Judy or Joker

BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Bombshell
2. Judy
3. Joker
4. Rocketman
5. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Possible Spoiler: Dolemite is My Name

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Joker
2. 1917
3. Marriage Story
4. Little Women
5. Pain & Glory

Possible Spoiler: Jojo Rabbit or Us or even Star Wars

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. I'm Gonna Love Me Again from Rocketman
2. Into the Unknown from Frozen II
3. Stand Up from Harriet
4. I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away from Toy Story 4
5. Spirit from Lion King

Possible Spoiler: Speechless from Aladdin or A Glass of Soju from Parasite

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
5. Avengers: Endgame

Possible Spoiler: Joker or Ad Astra

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
5. Rocketman

Possible Spoiler: Parasite or Joker

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Avengers: Endgame
2. The Lion King
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Alita: Battle Angel
5. The Irishman

Possible Spoiler: 1917

There ya go! Since I really know nothing much about the short subjects, I'll abstain from predicting Best Animated, Live Action, or Documentary Shorts. Huzzah! I'll be back tomorrow with a summary of all the nominations...and letchya all know how well I did with my predictions.

That's it gang. See ya 'round the web.



1 comment: