Saturday, March 3, 2018

My Final Oscar Predictions

So here we go kids! Time for my annual attempt at predicting the Academy Awards. My goal this time around, as it is every other time, is to finally break that 20 barrier. For those who do not know, there are 24 categories in which to predict. My record, which I have accomplished on multiple occasions, is 19. Here's to hopin' for that 20th correct prediction. But enough rambling. Let's get on with the show.

Best Picture
Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Surprise Win: Get Out (which I am rooting for)
Should Win: Call Me By Your Name, though Phantom Thread and Get Out are close runners up

For the first time in years, there is no true frontrunner here. This is actually a three or even a four way race. Will it be The Shape or Water, even with the plagiarism accusations? Will it be Three Billboards, even without a Best Director nod? Could Get Out pull off what Moonlight did last year? Could Dunkirk, the proposed frontrunner when it was first released, pull off an upset? Hell, even Lady Bird could shock us. But, as you have already read above, I am going with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, even if it failed to get a director nod, which Ben Affleck's Argo victory a few years back proved could happen. If THe Shape of Water does pull it off though, it will do it without a SAG nomination, something no Oscar winner has missed out on since Braveheart waaay back in 1995, the first year of the SAG Awards. So either way, it will be an oddity. But I am still kinda rooting for a Get Out victory.

Best Director
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
Could Win: Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread

Even if The Shape of Water doesn't pull off a win in Best Picture (and that is still kinda up in the air in my mind), del Toro will still most likely take home the director award, although a surprise win for Gerwig could happen....maybe.

Best Actress
Will Win: Frances McDormand in Three Billboards
Could Win: Ronan or Hawkins, but very doubtful
Should Win: McDormand or Hawkins

Let's face facts...Frances McDormand is winning her second Oscar! 'nuff said!

Best Actor
Will Win: Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour
Could Win: Timothy Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name
Should Win: Timothy Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name

Oldman is yet another shoo-in. A veteran actor who has never won, playing a real life icon? Yeah, this is finally Oldman's time to shine on the Oscar stage. But, just in case there is an upset, Timothy Chalamet could become the youngest Best Actor winner in Oscar history. Quite unlikely though.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Allison Janney in I, Tonya
Could Win: Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird
Should Win: Lesley Manville in Phantom Thread

Although Janney has taken precursor after precursor, and has that flashy over-the-top role that Oscar tends to fall in love with, if there is a surprise in any of the acting categories, it could be Laurie Metcalf pulling out a victory here. Perhaps as a way to reward Lady Bird in some way. I'm still sticking with Janney though.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards
Could Win: Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project
Should Win: Richard Jenkins in The Shape of Water

Although Dafoe looked like a shoo-in early on in this awards season, Rockwell has come on way too strong to think anyone but he will win. And it would be nice to see such an underrated actor win an Oscar. Still though, Jenkins stole every scene in The Shape of Water.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: Lady Bird
Should Win: Get Out

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Could Win: Mudbound
Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Could Win: The Square
Should Win: The Square

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Coco
Could Win: Coco
Should Win: Loving Vincent

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Faces Places
Could Win: Icarus
Should Win: Faces Places

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: The Shape of Water or Dunkirk
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049

Best Production Design
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: The Shape of Water

Best Film Editing
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Dunkirk...or Baby Driver

Best Costume Design
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Phantom Thread

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Could Win: Darkest Hour
Should Win: Darkest Hour

Best Original Score
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Phantom Thread
Should Win: Phantom Thread

Best Original Song
Will Win: Remember Me from Coco
Could Win: This is Me from The Greatest Showman
Should Win: The Mystery of Love from Call Me By Your Name

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: (out on a limb) Baby Driver
Could Win: Dunkirk

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049

Best Animated Short
Will Win: Dear Basketball
Could Win: Garden Party or Lou

Best Live Action Short
Will Win: DeKalb Elementary
Could Win: DeKalb Elementary (It's a film about a school shooting)

Best Documentary Short
Will Win: Edith + Eddie
Could Win: Heroin(e)

There ya have it. Three Oscars for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, including Best Picture...maybe. I'll be back on Monday, with a round up of the show, and to let ya'll know just how well I did in my predictions. At least 20, baby! That's it gang. See ya 'round the web. Now the Oscars, if ending the way I am predicting, will have to answer to this guy....

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