Monday, January 23, 2017

So, Here are My Oscar Nomination Predictions...

Hey gang, it's about that time again. The Oscar nominations are being announced in the wee hours of tomorrow morning, so here are my predictions for said nominations. The big winner is expected to be La La Land, with probably at least 12 nominations, and the possibility of tying the record of 14 even. Yeah, I enjoyed the film very much, and it did make my top ten list (spoiler alert...coming next week), but Best Picture? Well, it is the kind of film Hollywood likes, so it won't be a surprise. Anyway, another big winner tomorrow will most likely be Moonlight, the one film that could feasibly snatch the eventual Oscar away from La La Land. Other probable big winners tomorrow, include Manchester by the Sea, Arrival, Fences, and Lion. But enough rambling, here are my predictions!

BEST PICTURE

1. La La Land 
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Arrival
5. Lion
6. Hacksaw Ridge
7. Hidden Figures
8. Hell or High Water
9. Fences
10. Silence

Possible spoilers: Loving or Nocturnal Animals

Wishful Thinking: The Lobster

As we can nowadays get anywhere between five and ten nominations in the top category, it is a hard one to predict. At least once you get past the top six or seven. But here we go anyway. I do believe the top six are sure fire nominees. After that, who knows. Hidden Figures has lost steam lately, as has Hell or High Water and Fences, and Silence, though a gorgeous and passionate film, has seemingly not caught on with voters. But hey, here they are anyway. We'll see how many films they nominate. The recent years, say it will be nine once again, so Fences or Silence may be out. Wouldn't it be funny if Deadpool snuck in there? Ha! And hey, whatever happened to the sure thing that was Birth of a Nation?

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Damian Chazelle for La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve for Arrival
5. Garth Davis for Lion

Possible Spoiler: Marty Scorsese for Silence

Wishful Thinking: Yorgos Lanthimos for The Lobster

The top four are virtual locks, with number five, an almost sure thing. I would love to see Scorsese sneak in, but it isn't looking very promising in that avenue. As for the Oscar itself, if Chazelle were to win, he will become the youngest Best Director winner ever, and if Jenkins were to win, he will become the first African American to take the award.

BEST ACTRESS

1. Emma Stone in La La Land
2. Natalie Portman in Jackie
3. Isabelle Huppert in Elle
4. Meryl Streep in Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Amy Adams in Arrival

Possible Spoiler: Annette Bening in 20th Century Women or Ruth Negga in Loving

This looks like a pretty set bunch of nominees. I suppose one of the spoilers could leap in there, but somewhat unlikely. The real race comes to the Oscar itself. For so long, Stone has been the frontrunner, but suddenly this is a three way race between her and Portman and Huppert.

BEST ACTOR

1. Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington in Fences
3. Ryan Gosling in La La Land
4. Andrew Garfield in Hacksaw Ridge
5. Viggo Mortensen in Captain Fantastic

Possible Spoiler: Joel Edgerton in Loving

No Way in Hell, but Wouldn't it be Awesome: Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool

This is a six-way race. I cannot fathom another possibility of someone sneaking in there. When the Oscar is given out, it is going to be great to watch Casey Affleck, probably the best actor of his generation, win his first Oscar. Sure, Denzel could take the prize, but I think this is Casey's year. And, please take notice to no previous mention of Tom Hanks in Sully. Wasn't he the front runner a few months back? Oh well.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis in Fences
2. Michelle Williams in Manchester by the Sea
3. Naomi Harris in Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman in Lion
5. Octavia Spenser in Hidden Figures

Possible Spoilers: Um...nobody really. Okay, maybe Greta Gerwig in 20th Century Women

An almost sure 5-way set of locks. Yeah, Gerwig could sneak in, but it looks unlikely. Then again, this awards season has been filled with surprises, so who knows? The big thing about this category though, is the fact that it may have three African American nominations, and possibly a winner in Davis. After last year's #OscarsSoWhite controversy, this is a major step in equality in Hollywood. Okay, not actual equality (the country seems to be leaning the other direction these days) but it is at least a step for the Academy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali in Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel in Lion
4. Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Lucas Hedges in Manchester by the Sea

Possible Spoiler (and I would love it): Aaron Taylor-Johnson in Nocturnal Animals

Another category of five almost perfect locks. I would enjoy seeing Taylor-Johnson getting a nod. Nocturnal Animals is one of the best films of 2016 (spoiler alert again...my belated Top Ten is coming next week) and I would love to see some love for it around these parts. Hey, and speaking of which, howzabout a surprise nod for Taylor-Johnson's costar, Michael Shannon?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
5. Captain Fantastic

Other possibilities: Zootopia and/or Jackie and/or 20th Century Women

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Moonlight
2. Fences
3. Arrival
4. Lion
5. Nocturnal Animals

Other possibilities: Hidden Figures and/or Elle and/or Toni Erdmann

Ultra Spoiler: Deadpool

Finally, a coupla categories where I can put both The Lobster and Nocturnal Animals in there, and not just out of wishful thing. Actually, it could just be wishful thinking after all, since the writing categories tend to have the most surprises of the main categories. Of course then, there is always that damn ultra spoiler. Who knows?

Well, I'm a-gonna stop there. Let's leave all the technical categories to the fates (and just say I had a perfect score on predicting them). I'll be back tomorrow, with my reactions to the nominees, and to show off how well I did in predicting said nominees.

That's it gang. See ya 'round the web.







1 comment:

  1. These seem to be the films to watch out for tomorrow. I wonder what the upsets will be. I expect La La Land to be everywhere and I still have to see this film! Well, I have to see all of them actually. Fences sounds like a film one would see made in the 1950's since it was big then to make films from plays. It would be an upset if Tom Hanks is in the running and I did like that movie, it would be fun to see Deadpool in there but that won't happen. Of course, Meryl Streep will get a nod because she is in a movie so...there. It will be fun to see what is up and what got snubbed

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