Friday, February 20, 2015

My Final Set-in-Stone Oscar Predictions

So here we are kids, at the end of the ever-lengthening awards season, which means its about time for me to give you my Oscar predictions. We have 24 categories to pick and choose from, and my standing record is 19 out of that aforementioned 24. Usually I get 17 or 18, but twice I have reached 19, but I have yet to break through to that 20th correct prediction. Maybe this year. Maybe this year. Okay, probably not, as this year is much less predictable than most. Yeah, 3 of the 4 acting categories may be locks, but Actor is not, and neither is Director, and the top award may actually be a five way race, maybe even six. Yeah, that's the way it should be dag nab it. Of course, this means I could have a record low this year (which would be dropping below 16) but hey, I like the danger. Ha! Anyhoo, here we go with my final set-in-stone predictions. Let the predix commence. Oh, and check out the brand new look for the Oscar statue. Yeah, it's no longer gold, but it does have the power cosmic. If you read comics, that last line was freakin' hilarious, if not, oh well, just move onto the predictions portion of our show.

Best Picture
Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: Boyhood or American Sniper
Should Win: Boyhood or Birdman (can't choose!!!)

First Selma looked like a frontrunner, but then Boyhood took over that role (and that was even before the so-called Selma snub on Oscar nomination morning). Then recently, with victories at the SAGs, PGA & DGA awards, Birdman has become the frontrunner, Then Boyhood won the BAFTA, and it looked like we had a two-way race. Now add in the popularity and buzz of American Sniper, and the possibility of all these so-called frontrunners canceling each other out, and The Imitation Game surprising. Hell even Grand Budapest has a dark horse shot. Basically Whiplash and The Theory of Everything are the only two without a chance. Considering Boyhood and Birdman were numbers two and three on my Best of 2014 list, either one winning will make this guy happy. But yeah, it's pretty much a four or five way race. Yes, this makes predicting more difficult, but it also makes the Oscars fun again. Yes, at least 16, maybe 17 are still gimmes, but Picture, Director, and Actor are the ones to screw up even the best researched of Oscar pools - and maybe my own predictions as well. Anyway, here are the other 23 categories.

Best Director
Will Win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood
Could Win: Alejandro G, Inarittu for Birdman
Should Win: Linklater or Inarittu (damn, it's hard to choose!)

Best Actor
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne in Theory of Everything
Could Win: Keaton in Birdman or (maybe) Cooper in Sniper
Should Win: Michael Keaton,and he still just might

Best Actress
Will Win: Julianne Moore in Still Alice
Could Win: Witherspoon could surprise
Should Win: Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: J.K. Simmons in Whiplash
Could Win: No one else, but Hawke, if you must
Should Win: J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Patricia Arquette in Boyhood
Could Win: No one else, but Stone if you must
Should Win: Patricia Arquette in Boyhood

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Birdman
Should Win: Nightcrawler

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The Imitation Game
Could Win: Whiplash
Should Win: Inherent Vice

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Ida
Could Win: Wild Tales or Leviathan
Should Win: Ida

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could Win: Big Hero 6
Should Win: The Lego Movie (oh yeah, never mind)

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Citizenfour
Could Win: Citizenfour (yeah, that's right)
Should Win: Citizenfour

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: Unbroken (but not really)
Should Win: Birdman! Birdman! Birdman!

Best Production Design
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Into the Woods (but again, not really)
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Film Editing
Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: American Sniper or Whiplash
Should Win: Boyhood

Best Costume Design
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Into the Woods
Should Win: Grand Budapest or Inherent Vice

Best Make-Up & Hair Design
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Guardians of the Galaxy or Foxcatcher
Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Original Score
Will Win: The Theory of Everything
Could Win: Grand Budapest or Imitation Game
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Original Song
Will Win: Glory from Selma
Could Win: Everything is Awesome from The Lego Movie
Should Win: Lost Stars from Begin Again

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Interstellar
Could Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Interstellar (the only aspect of the film I liked)

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: Whiplash
Could Win: Sniper or Unbroken
Should Win: Birdman

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: American Sniper
Could Win: Unbroken
Should Win: Birdman

Best Animated Short
Will Win: Feast
Could Win: The Dam Keeper
Should Win: The Dam Keeper

Best Live Action  Short
Will Win: The Phone Call
Could Win: Anything
Should Win: Damned if I know

Best Documentary Short Subject
Will Win: Crisis Hotline
Could Win: Joanna
Should Win: Damned if I know (again)

So there ya have it. These are my picks, and I'm stickin' with 'em! I guess we'll find out Sunday, how well I did on the whole predicting thing. And I'll be back on Monday to discuss just how well (or how poorly) I did on these things. Maybe I'll talk about the Oscars themselves too. That's it gang. See ya 'round th...oh wait, I almost forgot, we had an Oscar poll, didn't we? Yeah, we did. Granted, not that many people participated in said poll (at a just mere 65 votes cast, only about a quarter of those who voted last year) but we do have the results nonetheless. Here they are. Your pick for Best Picture is Boyhood, with 28% of the vote. just edging out Birdman, with 23%. Taking the bronze medal is The Grand Budapest Hotel, with 20%. After this comes American Sniper and Selma, each with 9%, then Whiplash at 8%. Finally comes The Imitation Game with a mere 3%, and then poor little Theory of Everything, garnering not a single vote. Poor little Theory of Everything. 

Anyhoo, that's really it gang. See ya 'round the web.


4 comments:

  1. I did get once as high as 22 but I got as low as 9:) I figure I was luckier than hound dog on a poodle with the 22 score. I just watched Birdman and really enjoyed it. I agree that Pike should win but I have not seen Julianne Moore and she will win-it's her time. I hope Arquette doesn't get it but she will (yawn)-and insert evil laugh:). Now if only Rob Lowe and Snow White do some dirty dancing to a Jimi Hendrix song, I will be happy

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    1. Yeah, I've gotten 19 correct, three times now. My low is just 15 though (2011 I think). The one I'm really rooting for is Michael Keaton. Yes, I predicted Redmayne, but I'd be glad to be wrong.

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  2. Good luck with your picks. I'm going with Wes Anderson surprising in Best Director and Picture.

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    1. Thanx. I don't think there are enough hipsters in the Academy to make that happen. Though I do think Anderson's film will garner the most wins, with four, maybe even five if it pulls off a Best Original Score upset.

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