Saturday, March 1, 2014

My FINAL Oscar Predictions...and the Oscar Poll Results

Here they are lads and lassies, my final, set-in-stone, Oscar predictions.  There are 24 categories, and my goal is to get twenty or more correct.  My record is nineteen, which I did on three separate occasions, so twenty is indeed the goal.  Wish me luck...or don't...no skin off my nose.  So, without further ado, here we go...

Best Picture
will win: Gravity
should win: American Hustle
could surprise: Really, this is a three way race for the first time in a long time, and any of Hustle, Gravity, or 12 Years a Slave could realistically win here.  12 Years A Slave is probably the more reasonable choice, since it is the so-called important film in the bunch, and therefore holds a lot of weight with potential Oscar voters, but Gravity is the kind of movie's movie, a spectacle that also wins a lot.  Then again, American Hustle, admittedly the third party in the otherwise two-way race for gold, could sneak in there (and it would have my vote) and take it all.  But, in the end, I am going the way of Gravity having a big big night.  But if you want a real surprise then let's say Philomena.

Best Director 
will win: Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
should win: David O. Russell for American Hustle
could surprise: Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave

Best Actor 
will win: Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club
should win: Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club
could surprise: Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Actress 
will win: Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine
should win: Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine
could surprise: Sandra Bullock in Gravity

Best Supporting Actor 
will win: Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club
should win: Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club
could surprise: Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club

Best Supporting Actress 
will win: Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave 
should win: Julia Roberts in August: Osage County
could surprise: Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle

Best Original Screenplay 
will win: American Hustle
should win: American Hustle
could surprise: Her or Blue Jasmine

Best Adapted Screenplay
will win: 12 Years A Slave
should win: Before Midnight
could surprise: Before Midnight, or maybe The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Animated Film
will win: Frozen
should win: Earnest & Celestine
could surprise: The Wind Rises

Best Foreign-Language Film
will win: The Great Beauty
should win: The Great Beauty
could surprise: The Hunt or The Broken Circle Breakdown

Best Documentary Feature 
will win: 20 Feet From Stardom
should win: The Act of Killing
could surprise: The Act of Killing

Best Cinematography
will win: Gravity
should win: The Grandmaster
could surprise: Prisoners

Best Production Design 
will win: The Great Gatsby
should win: American Hustle
could surprise: Gravity (not that it would be a surprise, really)

Best Film Editing
will win: Captain Phillips
should win: American Hustle
could surprise: Gravity (not that it would be a surprise, either)

Best Costume Design
will win: American Hustle
should win: American Hustle
could surprise: The Great Gatsby

Best Make-Up and Hair Design 
will win: Dallas Buyers Club
should win: Dallas Buyers Club
could surprise: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Best Original Score
will win: Gravity
should win: Her
could surprise: Her

Best Original Song 
will win: Let it Go from Frozen
should win: The Moon Song from Her
could surprise: Ordinary Love from Mandela

Best Sound Mixing
will win: Gravity
should win: Gravity
could surprise: Inside Llewyn Davis (but doubtful)

Best Sound Editing
will win: Gravity
should win: Gravity
could surprise: All is Lost (but doubtful)

Best Visual Effects
will win: Gravity
should win: Gravity
could surprise: Star Trek Into Darkness (but doubtful)

Best Animated Short Film
will win: Get A Horse
should win: Get A Horse
could surprise: Feral! or Mr. Hublot

Best Live Action Short Film: 
will win: Helium
should win: The Voorman Problem
could surprise: The Voorman Problem

Best Documentary Short Subject: 
will win: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
should win: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
could surprise: Prison Terminal

So, basically, after flip-flopping back and forth for the last month or so, I have come to the conclusion that Gravity is going to have a big night, taking home seven Oscars.  If it pulls off a win in something like Editing or Production Design as well, it could be the biggest winner in over a decade.  Of course 12 Years A Slave, or even American Hustle (my personal vote) could end up on top, but as is, I have them each winning two.  Really though, most categories are locks, with only the screenplays, supporting actress, and maybe costumes and editing, and of course, best picture, up in the air.  That said, I am pretty confident I will get at least 18 correct, with a strong possibility of a record tying nineteenth, and maybe even a record setting twentieth.  Let's not get cocky though.  We'll just wait and see what happens.  So there.

And while we're on the subject of The Oscars, let's take a look at the results of this year's Oscar poll.

Well kids, it looks like our annual Oscar poll has come to a close (duh!), and that means we have ourselves a goddamn winner.  But before we get to all that, howzabout a little background on the poll.  This is the third year I have done this poll on my blog (the first two being at my now mostly defunct all film site, The Most Beautiful Fraud in the World), but this is the first time it has actually come down to the wire.  In the first year of the poll, The Tree of Life won with a whopping 43% of the vote, well over Hugo's second place finish of just 16%.  Last year, Django Unchained won with 22% of the vote over Amour's 18%, so it was a bit closer.  Now this year, it got even closer.  Just a 2% margin separating first and second place.  In the end it was American Hustle (my choice btw) beating out 12 Years a Slave, 22% to 20%.  But, even though it was close, Hustle never gave up its lead, keeping on top from day one, all the way through to the end.  Many claim this is the actual Oscar race as well, as this is the first year in a long time where the big winner was not already a foregone conclusion.  But then there could be a surprise (although not that much of one) winner in the form of our third place finisher.  Alfonso Cuaron's Gravity, the possible Oscar spoiler Sunday night, came in with the bronze medal in our poll, garnering 16% of the vote, just a bit more than The Wolf of Wall Street's 13%.  After this, we get Nebraska at 10%, Her with 8%, Dallas Buyers Club with 6%, Philomena at 4%, and poor little Captain Phillips, grabbing just 3 measly votes, and coming in at a mere 2%.  So there ya have it sports fans, the results of this year's Oscar poll.

Well, that's it gang.  I'll have my Oscar wrap-up on Monday.  See ya 'round the web.


2 comments:

  1. I'm goin' with American Hustle to win the big one. It probably won't but ya never know. Acting, I'm goin' with McConaughey, Streep, Leto, and J-Law. Her and Midnight for screenplays, and Cuaron for director. There ya go. Sorry I won't be there for your annual Oscar soiree this year, but I'm in Portland right now, stayin' with an old friend from the road. Maybe I'll make it back to Harrisburg someday before I die. Take care, man. Say hallo hallo to the wife.

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  2. So I went 19 for 24 (again) but ended up picking the wrong BP. Only the second time I've done that (picked Brokeback Mountain over Crash in '05). But it was a fun fun fun evening, without any of the pressure of throwing the perfect Oscar party. Just me, Amy , and our friend Anna. Even got to live tweet the whole shebang. That was extra fun. Definitely gonna do that again.

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